Djibouti - IMF: Communiqué on the results of the IMF Mission
Djibouti, December 25, 2018
Following the IMF mission to Djibouti from 04 to 17 December 2018, the Governor of the Central Bank, the Ministry of the Budget and the Ministry of Economy welcome the quality of relations between the country's authorities. and the IMF and welcome the conclusions of Article IV that recognize the efforts of the government under the leadership of the President of the Republic and the great prospects for growth that emerges.
This mission, which is part of the annual Article IV monetary fund consultations, was an opportunity to share with them our infrastructure investment strategy in order to transform our economy and position the country as a whole. logistics, commercial and financial pole for the sub-region. Apart from some differences of opinion on some figures, particularly on the GDP and the indebtedness of our country and more particularly on the prospects of the restructuring of the debt of the Railway under negotiation with Ethiopia and Djibouti, which have not been sufficiently taken into account in the Fund's analysis, the authorities share the conclusions. In addition, the authorities recalled that the increase in the volume of debt is mainly driven by the debt guaranteed by the State for the benefit of large state-owned enterprises and that this debt is self-financing. The share of the government's debt has dropped significantly from 50% to 28% of the total public debt over the period 2013-2018. Debt repayment capacities are thus maintained and ratios are below internationally recognized thresholds, as is the stability of foreign exchange reserves and the hedging rate of our currency. Debt service accounts for only 11% of revenues (total revenues + revenues of public enterprises), well below the 18% threshold.
While welcoming the positive assessment of the Fund, the authorities
nonetheless consider that the volume of direct investment retained foreigners (FDI) remains low and will be reviewed with the IMF. More
particularly, taking into account the regional gas project in pipeline estimates at $ 3 billion; investments made in the the free zone of Ambado and the investments made in the tourism sector alter forecasts the growth rates of the GDP.
Thus, forecasts of growth rates over the period 2018-2024 average of 8.8% (instead of 6% given the IMF) on the basis of FDI and other determinants of growth, especially financial impact of two megaprojects of the Railway and water supply.
The authorities have agreed with the IMF to continue the reforms already
committed to improving the business climate (Doing business), the
capacity building of public institutions (CPIA), the control of public financial management and the improvement of the corporate governance and public institutions with technical assistance from the IMF. These reforms will ensure the economic and social viability of the many projects implemented and generate public sector primary surpluses that will ensure debt sustainability.
In this regard, the IMF has welcomed these reforms initiated by the Djiboutian authorities to support Djibouti's development strategy.